How Black Friday Became a Goldmine for Fraudsters — and What Merchants Can Do About It

For global D2C merchants, Q4 is a high-stakes showdown. Global online spending during the 2025 holiday season (November to December) is forecast to surpass USD 1 trillion for the first time. In the U.S. alone, nearly four in ten consumers plan to shop during Black Friday, rising to almost six in ten among Gen Z and millennials.

For many merchants, November–December drives 30%+ of annual revenue. But beneath the sales frenzy lurk hidden risks. For every hundred new orders, two or three may turn into costly disputes. Fraudsters are sharpening their knives while merchants focus on growth.

The Three Most Common Fraud Tactics of the Peak Season

Friendly Fraud: The Invisible Drain

Friendly fraud, also called first-party fraud, arises when legitimate buyers dispute purchases, claiming transactions were unauthorised or “not as described.” Often, the buyer retains the product.

Why it matters:

• Direct loss of revenue and chargeback fees
• Additional effort in dispute management
• Long-term impact on relationships with card networks

Social media “money-saving hacks” encourage buyers to skip returns and file direct chargebacks. Every case counts towards card network thresholds, and exceeding them may threaten merchant accounts.

Proactive tools:

• RDR (Rapid Dispute Resolution) — automates preemptive refunds for small disputes
• CDRN (Cardholder Dispute Resolution Network) — alerts merchants early, enabling resolution before escalation

Understanding Chargebacks

A chargeback allows cardholders to dispute transactions via networks such as Visa and Mastercard. For merchants, this is a legal arbitration, not a simple refund.

High-Risk Monitoring Programmes:

• Visa’s VAMP flags merchants exceeding 100 chargebacks per month or 0.65% chargeback ratio, triggering heightened scrutiny.
• Mastercard maintains similar oversight programmes.

Defend Chargeback

Representment lets merchants dispute unjustified claims. Traditionally, this is slow and reactive: funds are often withdrawn before evidence is submitted, reducing recovery success.

Proactive tools simplify the process:

• RDR (Rapid Dispute Resolution) — auto-resolves eligible disputes before they become formal chargebacks
• CDRN (Cardholder Dispute Resolution Network) — immediately alerts merchants, giving a chance to contact customers directly

Why it matters for global payments: These tools reduce manual effort, prevent chargeback losses, and strengthen cross-border payment operations, ensuring smoother merchant payments and better payment orchestration.

True Fraud: AI-Powered Attacks

Unlike friendly fraud, true fraud comes from professional criminal networks. AI-powered bots now drive large-scale credential stuffing, card testing, and account hijacking during peak Black Friday traffic.

How it works:

• Fraudsters test stolen card data with tiny transactions (e.g., $0.50–$1)
• Leaked credentials from other breaches are used for mass login attempts
• Accounts may be drained, or loyalty points stolen

Why it matters:

• AI-driven attacks have doubled fraud losses year-on-year
• High fraud rates risk merchant accounts being flagged or suspended
• Static rules or manual reviews are insufficient against AI-powered bots

Key AI-era threats:

1. Synthetic Identity Fraud — AI combines real and fake data to create identities that are almost impossible to trace.
2. Service Abuse at Scale — Automated exploitation of sign-up or referral bonuses. Example: PayPal shut down 4.5 million fake accounts in one incident.
3. Behavioural Mimicry — Bots imitate human behaviour, rotate IPs, and spoof devices to evade detection.

Merchants relying solely on manual or static controls face lost revenue, higher chargebacks, and increased operational risk.

Logistics Fraud: The Silent Margin Killer

Peak-season logistics pressure creates fertile ground for opportunistic fraudsters.

Common tactics include:

• Empty Packages & Redirection — Fraudsters divert parcels to untraceable drop points, then claim non-receipt.
• Incorrect Addresses & Interception — Parcels are misaddressed and intercepted mid-return.
• False INR (Item Not Received) Claims — Even after confirmed delivery, buyers may file chargebacks.

Even with dispatch records, merchants often struggle to prove delivery authenticity under high-volume conditions.

Signed Delivery Is No Longer a Shield

Logistics fraud thrives on the information asymmetry between merchants and consumers. Card networks inherently favour buyers, meaning merchants carry the burden of proof.

Why logistics fraud peaks during Black Friday:

1. Unrealistic Delivery Expectations — Seasonal delays trigger disputes from consumers used to next-day delivery.
2. Contactless Delivery Challenges — Doorstep, concierge, or locker deliveries weaken signature verification.
3. Professional Fraud Networks — Groups study courier systems, exploiting weak points during seasonal chaos.

For merchants, disputing INR chargebacks requires a complete chain of evidence proving delivery to a verified address — almost impossible during peak season.

How Merchants Can Respond

• Optimise logistics — Partner with couriers offering photographic or GPS proof of delivery.
• Strengthen address verification (AVS) — Ensure billing addresses match bank records.
• Manage expectations — Communicate potential delays clearly and provide live order tracking.

A systematised dispute workflow that collects and submits verified delivery evidence is essential to reduce losses and protect margins.

Why Black Friday Fraud Peaks

Black Friday is a perfect storm for fraud:

1. Transaction volume spikes overwhelm traditional controls
2. Cross-border complexities blur lines between normal and fraudulent behaviour
3. Diverse buyer profiles — from small, frequent Z Gen payments to high-value one-off purchases

Simple, static rules often fail. High traffic, complex behaviours, and BNPL or multi-account scenarios increase false positives and missed fraud.

Effective peak-season protection requires proactive risk identification and millisecond-level automated decisioning, not reactive manual review.

Antom’s Peak Season Security Playbook: Three Layers of Defence

Proactive Defence: AI-Powered Risk Management

The best protection begins before losses occur. Antom’s AI-driven risk control system acts as a global security chief, instantly detecting potential threats.

• Battle-Tested Intelligence: Leveraging Alibaba Group’s extensive data network and global transaction ecosystem, Antom’s RiskNet analyses billions of transactions annually, providing unmatched insight into evolving fraud trends.
• AI Precision: Every online transaction is scanned in real time. By analysing behavioural, payment, device, and logistics patterns, Antom’s machine-learning models return instant risk assessments — automatically flagging or blocking high-risk activity before it can impact revenue.

Proactive AI defence reduces chargeback exposure, protects margins, and ensures smoother operations during peak seasons.

Secure Transactions: 3D Secure & Tokenisation

Antom strengthens payment security with 3D Secure and tokenisation — protecting transactions without disrupting the customer experience.

• 3D Secure 2.0: This dynamic verification layer confirms the purchaser is the legitimate cardholder. Low-risk transactions flow seamlessly, while high-risk payments trigger authentication via SMS, biometrics, or banking apps, striking the ideal balance between security and convenience.
• Tokenisation: Sensitive card information is converted into encrypted tokens stored securely within PCI DSS Level 1-compliant systems. In the event of a breach, only meaningless tokens are exposed — safeguarding both merchants and customers while boosting trust and encouraging repeat purchases.

Secure, frictionless payments minimise fraud liability and enhance customer confidence, supporting long-term loyalty.

Post-Transaction Recovery: Antom Copilot 2.0

Even with preventative measures, chargebacks may occur. Antom Copilot 2.0 automates dispute management, turning previously reactive processes into strategic advantages.

• Predictive Intelligence: Quickly identifies likely false chargebacks and prioritises cases.
• Automated Defence: Compiles evidence packages to improve representment success.
• Customisable Integration: Flexible enough to adapt to different business scales and risk policies.

Antom transforms chargeback disputes from a costly administrative burden into an opportunity for profit protection and operational resilience.

Expert POV

As e-commerce continues to evolve, cross-border transactions and digital wallets will become increasingly central to holiday shopping. Fraudsters will likely leverage AI and sophisticated automation, but so will merchants who invest in proactive risk management.

As cross-border e-wallet interoperability expands, Antom continues to simplify access for businesses across Asia and beyond. By integrating AI-driven fraud detection, tokenisation, and automated dispute resolution, merchants can confidently scale during peak seasons while safeguarding margins.

Looking ahead, success will depend on three key principles:

1. Prevention over reaction: Invest in AI-driven monitoring and predictive analytics to stop fraud before it happens.
2. Customer-first security: Ensure protective measures are frictionless and maintain a seamless checkout experience.
3. Operational resilience: Build systematic dispute and logistics evidence workflows that minimise losses and strengthen long-term merchant-buyer trust.

Key Takeaways

• Peak-season fraud is inevitable. From friendly fraud to AI-driven attacks and logistics abuse, merchants face heightened risk during Black Friday.
• Proactive, layered defence is essential. AI risk engines, 3D Secure 2.0, tokenisation, and automated dispute management are critical to safeguarding margins.
• Future-proof your business. Integrate cross-border payment solutions and scalable fraud tools to maintain growth while reducing operational and financial risk.