By Lydia Chen, Deloitte Research Partner, Deloitte
About the author
Lydia has more than 20 years of experience in industry research, covering consumer business, digital economy and government and public services, etc. She is now a leading partner of Deloitte Research China.
She is experienced in providing customised research and analysis to clients from government, industry association and private sectors. Lydia serves SOEs, as well as regularly leads research cooperation with digital economy platforms. Lydia has been continuously tracking key trends in various fields including China's retail industry transformation and digital economy development, established close contacts with entrepreneurs and opinion leaders from different industry associations and important think tanks.
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In 2026, the global macroeconomic landscape remains volatile, as the world economy seeks a new equilibrium amid slowing growth, policy uncertainty, and the ongoing technological revolution.
First, the growth of major economies has generally slowed, and inflation trends are diverging. According to IMF projections, global economic growth is set to edge down from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026. Developed economies are expected to grow at around 1.5%, while emerging markets and developing economies will see slightly stronger growth, exceeding 4%. Inflation trends are diverging: the United States faces elevated inflationary risks, while inflation in other regions was subdued.
Second, geopolitical tensions persist in multiple regions, keeping risk factors in sharp focus. Developed economies continue to pursue industrial policies aimed at reshoring and supply chain restructuring, reshaping the global industrial landscape.
Third, digital technology brings about a wave of transformative change and unlocking new possibilities. AI is emerging as a key force for boosting total factor productivity and fostering industrial innovation. However, the long-term returns on AI investments remains to be seen. For businesses, the challenge lies in translating AI’s potential into tangible outcomes, ensuring it becomes a sustainable driver to counter macroeconomic uncertainty.
Under the combined influence of the above factors, global trade patterns are also undergoing adjustments. The slowdown in developed economies and the trend toward supply chain regionalisation may reshape traditional trade flows. At the same time, digital technologies like AI are poised to unlock new growth avenues, not only by improving efficiency in production and distribution but also by creating new opportunities in digital services and smart products. This will inject critical momentum into global economic and trade cooperation.
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